Mercado | Insights | US Trade Partners: Who Should We Buy From? Who Should We Sell To?

Insight: US Trade Partners: Who Should We Buy From? Who Should We Sell To?

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First Things First

Insight: US Trade Partners: Who Should We Buy From? Who Should We Sell To?

April 10, 2023

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Every week, Mercado CEO Rob Garrison pens his latest learnings from the supply chain industry as part of an on-going series. Each article aims to share a little insight into what's going on that week, and to help foster discussion amongst industry professionals across levels, geographies, and companies.
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Can we do one without the other?
Visual Capitalist has shared another fascinating visual, highlighting the United States' key trading partners. Upon analyzing the data, I'd like to share a couple of observations:

  1. Onshoring, Nearshoring, Friend Shoring, and Far Shoring
    The chart illustrates that the US already engages in significant nearshoring, with Canada and Mexico as its top trading partners. The combined trade volume with these two countries amounts to $896 billion in imports and $680 billion in exports, accounting for nearly a third of total trade. In terms of friend shoring, the vast majority of the 44 named countries in the chart would be considered friendly by most objective standards. While there isn't a precise definition for far shoring, it usually involves shipping goods by sea, which applies to all but a handful of the named countries. We do have oceans to our east and west.
  1. Balance of Trade: Offshoring Jobs and Reciprocal Trade
    While discussions often revolve around offshoring jobs to other countries, it's crucial to remember that the US maintains reciprocal trade with all 44 of the listed countries. This means that if trade were to cease completely, it would also affect US jobs dependent on these countries purchasing American goods, as well as the jobs supporting global trade. For example, FedEx Express derives a large % of its revenue from their international division. Apple derives more than half of it's revenue from international sales vs domestic.

Understanding the nuances of US trade relations provides valuable context for discussions on onshoring, offshoring, and trade balance. It's important to consider the broader implications of trade decisions on both domestic and international job markets.

What do you think? The last few years have shined an entirely new light on global trade, however have the fundamental pros and cons of global trade remained largely the same?
Mercado | Insights - The $2.8T international supply chain visualized
"In an 'ideal' world, an importer would have at least one backup country, and one back up supplier for every critical product... All of this sounds good on paper, however it's actually incredibly difficult in practice."
One key reason is the dominance of China. Many importers are concerned about China as a sourcing point due to increasing tensions between the countries. However, the reality is that China dominates mfg in Asia, and they are very good at it.

As a result, quitting China is hard, as you will see in the excellent analysis below by Rita Rudnik.

A second reason is much more mundane. Most importers lack a robust database of their suppliers, and their supplier's suppliers. On the surface this sounds ridiculous, however we have gone through decades of 'predictable' supply chains where this wasn't a priority. Using the example above, most of the bike importers I spoke to were simply not aware of how reliant their suppliers were on Shimano.

My guidance to all importers is to address this database issue quickly. Beyond resiliency, knowing a lot about who makes your products, and who makes their parts, is also critical for understanding things like cost, ESG, and sales.

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About the author

Rob Garrison, Mercado CEO

Rob Garrison

A highly accomplished Global Supply Chain executive with 25 years of experience, Rob Garrison has provided strategic vision and leadership to Fortune 500 companies. Rob has an impressive history of building agile, technology-enabled supply chains, and he has an established track record of forging high-growth partnerships, positioning organizations for success and launching innovative technology solutions that significantly improve end-to-end supply chain efficiencies.

Rob is currently CEO and founder of Mercado Labs.
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